Climate Strategies recently submitted its input to the COP30 Presidency’s Roadmap on the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, drawing on insights from our Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels (PPFF), South-to-South Just Transitions, ELEVATE and NEWPATHWAYS projects. This blog highlights the key takeaways from our submission and what they mean for the transition ahead.

Introduction

The global energy transition has entered a decisive yet fragmented phase. The transition away from fossil fuels is accelerating, however these resources (especially oil and gas) continue to shape geopolitics, fiscal stability and development trajectories worldwide. This reflects a difficult reality: progress is undeniable, but uneven and the economic, social, and climate risks of delayed action are intensifying.

Across the world, countries, particularly those that rely heavily on fossil fuel exports, are navigating a complex landscape of constraints and opportunities. With careful planning, the transition can open pathways to enhanced resilience, economic diversification and long-term energy security. However, this requires balancing competing imperatives of energy security, affordability, self-sufficiency and development priorities in a volatile global context. In this setting, international coordination, including between fossil fuel importers and exporters, remains limited but essential.

What is holding back progress?

Despite growing momentum, several critical barriers continue to slow a just energy transition.

A central challenge is ongoing economic dependence on fossil fuel revenues. Many countries rely on oil and gas to sustain public finances and socio-economic development. Declining demand creates fiscal pressures and limits the capacity to invest in both the transition and broader development priorities.

At the same time, uncertainty around the pace and direction of the transition, combined with geopolitical instability and volatile markets, weakens confidence and delays action. Competing expectations around transition pathways, including the role of technologies such as carbon capture or transition fuels, further complicate decision-making.

Governments must also balance the “energy trilemma” of security, affordability, and sustainability, often prioritising short-term energy needs over rapid phase-out. These challenges are reinforced by political and economic constraints, where fossil fuel dependency is embedded in existing systems and diversification remains difficult.

What levers enable an effective transition?

Progress depends on a set of mutually reinforcing actions that reduce uncertainty, align incentives, strengthen coordination, and support countries in accordance with their national circumstances.

First, clearer international signalling and transparency from transitioning countries on future demand and supply can support planning and build trust. This is closely linked to the need for stronger coordination between fossil fuel importers and exporters to align interests and responsibilities, an area that remains underdeveloped despite being central to managing the transition.

At the same time, scaling cooperation on finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building is essential to address structural constraints that limit participation in the transition. In addition to this, strengthening analytical tools and modelling can further support more informed and credible decision-making.

Finally, economic diversification must be treated as a core part of the transition. Aligning transition strategies with broader development objectives can help reduce exposure to external shocks and support more resilient growth pathways.

Ensuring the energy transition is a Just Transition

Any Just Transition must move beyond a one-size-fits-all approach and reflect global inequalities, development needs, and structural dependencies.

This requires recognising the international dimensions of the transition. Climate change and energy systems are interconnected, and equity between countries must remain a guiding principle, including fair burden-sharing based on historical emissions and capacity.

Cross-border impacts must also be addressed. Climate action in one country can have unintended social, economic and environmental impacts elsewhere, for example, through trade rules or global supply chains. A Just Transition requires ensuring that climate action in one region does not exacerbate inequalities in another.

At the same time, differentiated pathways and timelines are essential. Countries are starting from very different positions, and enabling fair transitions, particularly in the Global Majority World, will require more ambitious action from Global North economies. Similarly, a Just Transition must also incorporate restorative justice by addressing historical inequalities linked to fossil fuel extraction and ensure that affected communities are supported through inclusive governance.

Finally, delivering a Just Transition requires finance. Addressing its social dimensions is not cost-neutral, and targeted, differentiated support will be essential for countries that rely on fossil fuel revenues.

Moving from ambition to implementation

The transition away from fossil fuels is no longer an option, it is essential and now the main questions is – how will this transition be managed?  The COP30 Presidency roadmap presents a critical opportunity to align these dynamics into a coherent global effort that mobilises cooperation at scale, bridges divides between countries, and translates shared ambition into actionable and equitable outcomes. Without this, progress will remain uneven and contested. With it, the transition can support more resilient, diversified, and inclusive development pathways.

Read our whole submission here!