Europe is enduring one of its most severe droughts on record. Since April, large parts of the continent observed well below-average rainfall.1 Combined with repeated heatwaves, these conditions have pushed rivers to unusually low levels, fuelled devastating wildfires in Spain and France, and placed mounting strain on agriculture from the Iberian Peninsula to the Balkans .2

Drought conditions have taken a firm grip on Central, Eastern, and parts of northern Europe, driving both agricultural and hydrological stress. Lower levels of rainfall, and unusually high temperatures caused reduced soil moisture and stressed vegetation.3 Yield forecasts have already fallen in Poland, Czechia and Slovakia, while France, Hungary, Germany and Italy face a worsening outlook as dry conditions persist.4 Economists warn that the combination of unpredictable weather, crop damage and wider global tensions could increase European food inflation up by a full percentage point over the coming year.5

The strain on water resources has been just as visible. On 16 July, the Netherlands moved up to drought level 2, signalling an ‘actual water shortage’ and the need for further measures to manage its stretched freshwater supply.6 Four days later, the lower Danube water levels in Romania reached their lowest since 1996.7

Effects on European agriculture

The toll of the drought on farming is already stark. France is on course for its lowest maize harvest in fifty years.8 Dutch potato growers, Bosnian corn farmers and Italian vineyards are all reporting significant losses.9 Analysts at the Dutch bank Triodos estimate that this summer’s heat and drought could shave around one percent off EU GDP for 2026, a loss in the region of €180 billion.10 Even irrigated land has not been spared: this year’s extreme temperatures during flowering periods have undermined yields regardless of water supply, while usage restrictions in several regions have limited how much irrigation is even possible.11 Scientific attribution studies confirm what farmers already sense instinctively, that climate change has made this kind of drought dramatically more likely, up to eighty times more likely in western Europe and forty times more likely in the east.12

From Field to Negotiating Table: COP17 in Mongolia

Against this backdrop, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification’s biennial conference, COP17 took place in Ulaanbaatar from 17 to 28 August 2026 under the banner “Restoring Land, Restoring Hope”. Mongolia, where roughly three-quarters of the land is already degraded, was a fitting host: the talks aimed to to finish the global drought framework left unresolved at COP16 in Riyadh, and to translate years of pledges on land restoration into genuine finance and action.13

COP17delivered progress by securing over $1.3 billion in pledges for land restoration and rangeland initiatives. However, negotiations on a global drought framework remained deadlocked, with the US opposing a legally binding instrument, while most other parties advocated for a multilateral approach, leaving the issue unresolved.

The negotiations underlined a truth that this summer made impossible to ignore: drought is no longer a peripheral environmental concern but a systemic threat to food security, economic stability and social cohesion.

Closing the Foresight Gap: Augures!

Restoring degraded land matters, but so does knowing where and when drought risk will strike next. This is exactly the gap the Augures! project is designed to close. European farmers and policymakers currently sit stranded between short-term seasonal alerts and long-range climate models, often too distant to guide decisions on which crop varieties to plant, how to manage water, where to direct subsidies.

Augures! bridges that gap by merging seasonal forecasts with decadal climate models, producing the most detailed decadal agricultural outlooks yet developed in Europe.  Augures! is working towards crop yield and economic projections across the region as well as detailed focus countries, including Greece, France and Romania for maize and wheat. Looking ahead, the project aims to extend its coverage to further countries, including Serbia and Hungary. To find more information about the project, please check our website.

As this summer has shown, Europe cannot afford to keep planning its agricultural future one bad season at a time. Augures! gives farmers, insurers and policymakers the ten-year foresight needed to build resilience in time.

Climate Strategies is seeking partners and funders to expand the Augures! project’s scope. If you are working on climate resilience in European agriculture, get in touch to explore how we can collaborate. Email our Project Officer Gaia Campanelli for more information!

Article author: Benedetto Valentini
Editor: Adela Hankus

References:

  1. Kew, S. et al. (2026): Increasingly hot Europe faces more Severe Droughts and Growing Challenges for Water and Land Management. World Weather Attribution, WWA scientific report No. 87. DOI:10.25560/131401 ↩︎
  2. ibid. ↩︎
  3. Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Magni, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Rossi, M. et al., Drought in Europe May 2026 – GDO Analytical Report, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2026. At: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC147362 ↩︎
  4. Trompiz, G., & Ilie, L. (2026). Wilting French maize to shrink Europe’s harvest as farmers fear repeat of 1976. Reuters. At: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/wilting-french-maize-shrink-europes-harvest-farmers-fear-repeat-1976-2026-07-10/ ↩︎
  5. Katanich, D. (2026). Why this summer’s heatwaves could raise your supermarket bill next year. Euronews Business. At: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/07/16/why-this-summers-heatwaves-could-raise-food-prices-next-year ↩︎
  6. Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat / Rijkswaterstaat (2026). Extra maatregelen door aanhoudende droogte, opschaling naar feitelijk watertekort.  At: https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/nieuws/archief/2026/07/extra-maatregelen-door-aanhoudende-droogte-opschaling-naar-feitelijk-watertekort ↩︎
  7. Ilie, L. (2026). Danube water levels reach lowest in 30 years, hampering farming and shipping. Reuters. At: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/danube-water-levels-reach-lowest-30-years-hampering-farming-shipping-2026-07-20/ ↩︎
  8. Kew, S. et al. (2026) ↩︎
  9. France 24 (2026). European drought shrivels crops despite farmers’ best efforts to adapt. At: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260813-european-drought-shrivels-crops-despite-farmers-best-efforts-to-adapt ↩︎
  10. France 24 (2026). ↩︎
  11. Bambridge-Sutton, A. (2026). Drought in Europe: How have crops been impacted? FoodNavigator. At: https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/08/11/drought-in-europe-how-have-crops-been-impacted/ ↩︎
  12. Kew, S. et al. (2026). ↩︎
  13. Shagun (2026). UNCCD COP17 opens in Ulaanbaatar with a single demand: enough declarations, turn land pledges into money and action. Down To Earth.  At: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/unccd-cop17-opens-in-ulaanbaatar-with-a-single-demand-enough-declarations-turn-land-pledges-into-money-and-action ↩︎