Scroll through this page for an overview of the state of the climate for Europe this winter, as well as seasonal outlooks for the upcoming spring: March-May 2026. Want to find out more? Explore the in-depth seasonal climate outlook for the month here.

State of the Climate – December 2025 Observations

☀️ Europe experienced the joint-fourth warmest December on record, at 1.99°C above the 1991-2020 mean. Monthly-mean temperatures were significantly above normal in the entire continent except for parts of Italy and the northernmost Fennoscandia. The anomalies were record high for much of eastern Europe, the Alpine region, southern Scandinavia, and northern UK (Fig. 1).

🌧️ In terms of precipitation, December was drier than normal for central and eastern Europe. Significant positive anomalies characterized the Iberian peninsula, the UK, and Fennoscandia.

🌱 While much of Europe is snow covered as of January 1^st, soil moisture fields are to be treated with caution.

Figure 1. Agrometeorological overview of December 2025 in Europe. Upper row: Anomalies in temperature at 2m (left) and precipitation accumulation (right) based on ERA5. Black dots indicate the areas where the observed anomalies were record-high (positive or negative) for December in the period from 1960 to today. Lower row: Standardized anomaly in soil moisture in the 28-100cm layer below surface on January 1^st, 2026, based on ERA5-Land. Values below -1, -1.5, -2, and -2.5 indicate “moderately dry”, “significantly dry”, “severely dry”, and “extremely dry” conditions, respectively. Values above +1, +1.5, +2, and +2.5 indicate “moderately wet”, “significantly wet”, “severely wet”, and “extremely wet” conditions. Values between -1 and +1 reflect near-normal conditions. The climatological baseline for the computation of anomalies is the 1991-2020 period. Purple hatching indicates snow covered areas.

Seasonal Outlook – Forecasts for March-May 2026

The key points of the seasonal forecasts issued in early January 2026 for the upcoming spring in Europe are summarized below:

• Europe is projected to be warmer than average, with the anomalies increasing gradually from 0.75°C in western Europe to 1.5°C in eastern and especially northeastern Europe (Fig. 2).

• While the day-to-day weather evolution of the coming months cannot be foreseen, an increase of 1-3 Warm Days and a decrease of 1-4 Frost Days per month are expected throughout Europe.

• In terms of the total precipitation, the mean of all examined scenarios results in weakly positive anomalies for most of Europe (up to +10%), with patches of slightly negative anomalies in the southern and western parts of the continent (up to -10%) (Fig. 2).  

• Positive soil moisture anomalies are projected for the Balkans and southwestern Russia, while weakly negative anomalies are projected for Spain, parts of central Europe, and Turkey (Fig. 2).

Considering the complexity of the Earth system, seasonal forecasts are characterised by large uncertainty. Daily and local weather conditions may differ significantly from the monthly average conditions in a broader region.

Figure 2. Climate outlook for the upcoming March-May period in Europe based on the seasonal forecasts issued in January 2026. Upper row: Multi-model mean 2m-temperature (left) and precipitation (right) anomaly. Lower row: ECMWF soil moisture anomaly in layer-3 (28–100cm).