Find for an overview of the state of the climate for Europe at the beginning of 2026, as well as seasonal outlooks for the upcoming spring: March-May 2026. Want to find out more? Explore the in-depth seasonal climate outlook for the month here.

State of the Climate – January 2026 Observations

☀️ Europe experienced the coldest January since 2010, at 1.63°C above the 1991-2020 mean. Monthly-mean temperatures were significantly below normal in Germany, Poland, Scandinavia and northeast Europe. In contrast, the monthly-mean temperature was significantly above average in southeastern Europe (Fig. 1). 

🌧️ In terms of precipitation, December was wetter than normal in much of Europe, except from central Europe and parts of Scandinavia. Significant – and at times record-high – positive anomalies characterized parts of the British Isles, the Iberian Peninsula, a big part of western and central Mediterranean, the western Balkans (and Greece), as well as parts of Turkey and Russia.

🌱 While much of Europe is snow covered as of February 1^st, soil moisture fields are to be treated with caution. 

Figure 1. Agrometeorological overview of January 2025 in Europe. Upper row: Anomalies in temperature at 2m (left) and precipitation accumulation (right) based on ERA5. Black dots indicate the areas where the observed anomalies were record-high (positive or negative) for December in the period from 1960 to today. Lower row: Standardized anomaly in soil moisture in the 28-100cm layer below surface on February 1^st, 2026, based on ERA5-Land. Values below -1, -1.5, -2, and -2.5 indicate “moderately dry”, “significantly dry”, “severely dry”, and “extremely dry” conditions, respectively. Values above +1, +1.5, +2, and +2.5 indicate “moderately wet”, “significantly wet”, “severely wet”, and “extremely wet” conditions. Values between -1 and +1 reflect near-normal conditions. The climatological baseline for the computation of anomalies is the 1991-2020 period. Purple hatching indicates snow covered areas.

Seasonal Outlook – Forecasts for March-May 2026

The key points of the seasonal forecasts issued in early February 2026 for the upcoming spring in Europe are summarized below:

• Europe is projected to be warmer than average, with the anomalies increasing gradually from 0.75°C in western Europe to 1.5°C in eastern and especially southeastern Europe (Fig. 2). 

• In terms of the total precipitation, the mean of all examined scenarios results in weakly positive anomalies for most of Europe (up to +10%), with patches of slightly negative anomalies in the southwestern parts of the continent (up to -10%) (Fig. 2).  

• Positive soil moisture anomalies are projected for the Iberian peninsula, southeastern Europe, and Russia, while weakly negative anomalies are projected for northeastern Europe (Fig. 2).

Considering the complexity of the Earth system, seasonal forecasts are characterized by large uncertainty. Daily and local weather conditions may differ significantly from the monthly average conditions in a broader region.

Figure 2. Climate outlook for the upcoming March-May period in Europe based on the seasonal forecasts issued in February 2026. Upper row: Multi-model mean 2m-temperature (left) and precipitation (right) anomaly. Lower row: ECMWF soil moisture anomaly in layer-3 (28–100cm).