Implications of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees for scaling up Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

Realising the ambition of the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming below 1.5°C requires a dramatic re-wiring of the global economy and wider changes in society to ensure deep decarbonisation and enhanced resilience to the effects of climate change.

This briefing note summarises key findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) and spells out what they mean for scaling up the ambition of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

Key messages:

• SR15 makes clear the need to intensify and scale up efforts within and beyond Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires transformative systemic change, involving the upscaling and acceleration of far-reaching climate mitigation across all regions and sectors.
• Accelerated and stronger short-term action, and enhanced longer- term ambition going beyond the current round of NDCs, is needed for 1.5°C-consistent pathways.
• Governments need to conduct a gap analysis at the national level to assess how to strengthen their NDCs in line with 1.5°C pathways, identifying key priority actions for themselves and those that will be undertaken by non-state actors such as cities and businesses.
• A mixture of policies is needed to drive disruptive low carbon innovation, change behaviour and finance rapid transitions compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, as well as to strengthen governance at all levels.
• Governments, as well as national and international funders, as a matter of urgency, need to plan for the accelerated withdrawal of support to fossil fuels.