LATEST: Download the new co-produced scenario reports on oil and gas transitions in Norway, Denmark and the UK

Our initiative aims to generate evidence and co-produced pathways for policy action to accelerate oil and gas transitions in the UK, Denmark and Norway. These three countries have committed to achieving ambitious carbon neutrality targets aligned with limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Yet, they are the three top oil and gas-producing nations in Europe. A deep transition out of all fossil fuels will be required for their targets to be realised, and while significant progress has been achieved in phasing out coal (i.e., Britain’s reliance on coal for electricity dropping from 70% in 1990 to less than 3% today), we must now turn to the oil and gas sector as the next frontier.

Oil and gas expansion plans remain in the UK (despite its recently announced North Sea Transition Deal) and Norway, with only Denmark setting a date to phase out the industry. This ‘ambition gap’ between net-zero promises and climate policies, and oil and gas industrial strategies, is the key issue we seek to address.

Industry, government, and community resistance to the transition is largely founded on concerns for social and economic impacts. Thus, strategies to phase out oil and gas must also be just and equitable. A just and orderly transition will require policy coherence between emissions targets and the provision of policies which support economic diversification strategies, labour market plans, skills training, social security and support for companies in reorienting their business models.

To respond to this complex research and policy challenge, our initiative will develop a better understanding of oil and gas transition scenarios for the North Sea region; establish buy-in from key stakeholders; and enable collaboration to scale up innovation and early-stage just transition efforts.

• Generating evidence of the role of oil and gas in the political economy within the UK, Norway and Denmark, focusing on the need, barriers and opportunities for a just transition.
• Co-producing just and feasible oil and gas transition pathways to 2050, alongside a diversity of key stakeholders from government, industry, civil society and academia.
• Drawing lessons from the North Sea to create roadmaps for raising ambition in other producing and non-producing countries facing similar oil and gas transition challenges.

OGT Reports

• November 2021: Denmark without Oil and Gas Production: Opportunities and Challenges.
• November 2021: Norwegian Oil and Gas Transition: Building bridges towards a carbon neutral future.
• November 2021: The Future is Built on the Past: Just Industrial and Energy Transitions in the UK and Scotland.
• February 2022: North Sea Oil and Gas: Potential Technological Transformation Towards Net-Zero Emissions.
• May, 2022: North Sea Oil and Gas: Transition from a Regional and Global Perspective.
• September 2022: Why wait until 2050? Exploring possible scenarios for phasing out oil and gas production faster than planned in the Danish North Sea.
• September 2022: Petroleum Transition Pathways in Norway: How do Norwegian stakeholders envision pathways to net-zero and phase-out for the country’s oil and gas sector?.
• September 2022: Living in the present, making the future: UK scenarios for the phase-out of oil and gas.
• August 2023: Lessons from Oil and Gas Transitions in the North Sea.

Policy briefs

• October 2022: Net-zero or phase out? Stakeholder views on just transitions pathways for oil and gas in Norway.

OGT Academic and peer-reviewed publications

• September 2023: Abandoning fossil fuel production: What can be learned from the Danish phase-out of oil and gas?. Energy Research & Social Science journal.
• November 2023: OGT Special Issue in the Climate Policy Journal on “Net Zero Oil and Gas Value Chains: Just Transitions by 2040”, featuring our Editorial and eight articles:
• November 2022: Green innovation of state-owned oil and gas enterprises in BRICS countries: a review of performance.
• December 2022: Investor-state dispute settlement: obstructing a just energy transition.
• January 2023: Paradoxes of Norway’s energy transition: controversies and justice.
• March 2023: Tracing the development of Anti-Fossil Fuel Norms: insights from the Republic of Ireland.
• April 2023: Turning out the light: criteria for determining the sequencing of countries phasing out oil extraction and the just transition implications.
• July 2023: Left behind: emerging oil and gas producers in a warming world.
• August 2023: Investor compensation for oil and gas phase out decisions: aligning valuation methods to decarbonization.
• November 2023: Net zero by choice? Oil and gas industry motivations for the energy transition and public policy in Scotland.

Policy submissions & impact

• May 2022: OGT’s response to the UK Environmental Audit Committee inquiry on ‘Accelerating the transition from fossil fuels and securing energy supplies’ submitted by the University of Edinburgh, and final report on the enquiry published by the House of Commons Committee in January 2023.
• September 2023: Contribution to Climate Strategies submission to the UNFCCC call for input from non-party organisations on the Work Programme on Just Transition Pathways.
• October 2023: OGT contribution to Climate Strategies submission to the Katowice Committee on Impacts call for inputs on guidelines and policy frameworks to promote just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs.
• November 2023: OGT contribution to the position of the Research and Independent Non-Governmental Organizations (RINGO) constituency to the UNFCCC ahead of COP28 [not available online].
• December 2023: Contribution to Climate Strategies verbal statement delivered at the 2023 High-Level Ministerial Roundtable on Just Transition at COP28.

Blogposts and other non-academic publications

• November 2021: OGT blogpost “Turning the spotlight on oil and gas transitions at COP26”.
• November 2021: OGT’s article “Oil and Gas Transitions: Taking stock of the COP26 and the EU’s energy crisis” on the November 2021 edition of SEB’s The Green Bond Report.
• September 2022: OGT blogpost “Clear North Sea transition roadmaps away from oil and gas could deliver climate goals early and mitigate the energy crisis”.
• September 2022: SEI Perspective “The North Sea countries could be first movers to transition away from oil and gas”.
• August 2023: OGT blogpost “Top researchers state that governments need to stop “propping up” the oil and gas industry and start driving fossil fuel phase-out”.
• August 2023: SEI Perspective “Britain’s North Sea decision: waning leadership at home and abroad”.
• December 2023: Climate Strategies blogpost “COP28 Blog: Adriana Chavarría-Flores on Oil & Gas Transitions”.

OGT Events

• June 2021: OGT webinar at Climate Week London 2021 on “Oil & Gas Transitions: Co-creating evidence to accelerate action” [official launch of the project].
• November 2021: OGT side event at COP26 (Danish Pavilion) on “Oil and Gas as the Next Climate Frontier: Just Transitions from Black to Green”. Additional information in COP26’s OGT blogpost.
• November 2021: OGT invitation-only dinner on just transitions from oil and gas at COP26 [not available online] Included in COP26’s OGT blogpost].
• February 2022: Norway’s two-day in-person scenario co-production workshop in Oslo led by the University of Oslo [information available in the report].
• April 2022: Denmark’s one-day in-person scenario co-production workshop in Copenhagen led by Aalborg University [information available in the report].
• May 2022: UK’s two-day virtual scenario co-production workshop led by the University of Edinburgh [information available in the report].
• September 2022: OGT two-day in-person North Sea Transition workshop in Dundee and Aberdeen, Scotland.
• September 2022: OGT session at SEI International Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy 2022. Additional information here.
• October 2022: Fafo Breakfast hybrid event on “Electrify or phase out Norwegian oil?” for the national launch of Norway’s co-produced just transition pathways’ report (Activity 2).
• November 2022: OGT side event at COP27 (Danish Pavilion) on “From Oil and Gas to Wind”: A Global Pathway for the Just Transition or a Danish Success Story?”.
• September 2023: OGT final in-person event at Climate Week NYC 2023 on “Tackling Oil and Gas Expansion Through Just Transitions: Pathways for Net Zero and Phase Out”. Additional information here.
• December 2023: Invitation-only in-person workshop at COP28 on “Just Transitions in the Oil & Gas SectorCOP28 workshop” co-hosted by OGT, the Natural Resources Governance Institute (NRGI) and WRI.
• December 2023: Side event at COP28 (Danish Pavilion) on “Beyond the peak: Planning for Just Transitions in Oil and Gas” co-hosted by OGT, the Natural Resources Governance Institute (NRGI) and WRI.

OGT Newsletters

• November 2021: Newsletter Edition #1
• March 2022: Newsletter Edition #2
• December 2022: Newsletter Edition #3
• October 2023: Newsletter Edition #4

Media coverage and op-eds

• September 2021: Op-ed in FORESIGHT Climate & Energy on “The North Sea region must lead the just transition of the oil and gas industry”.
• September 2022: Article in Power Engineering International on “North Sea decarbonisation needs a clear vision and an attitude change”.
• September 2022: Article in The Scotsman on “Climate change goals at risk due to ‘lack of clear net zero strategies’ – Oil and Gas Transitions report”.
• September 2022: Article in Better Society Network on “Energy security goals at risk”.
• October 2022: Op-ed in RECHARGE on “North Sea can lead global charge for a just energy transition – but must halt oil exploration now”.
• October 2022: Article in City AM on “North Sea industry must focus on training offshore workers for green roles”.
• October 2022: Report on media coverage and engagement for the media launch of the co-produced scenario reports (Activity 2) by Greenhouse Communication Agency.
• November 2022: Op-ed in Debatt on “Is ‘development, not decommissioning’ standing in the way of the change everyone knows is coming?”.
• December 2022: Contribution to article in Petroleum Economist on “COP27 leaves oil and gas unscathed”.
• December 2022: Op-ed in Fuel Oil News on “North Sea oil and gas must address challenges to mitigate energy crises”.
• August 2023: Article in Energy Monitor on “Governments should stop ‘propping up’ oil and gas – report”.
• August 2023: Op-ed in Politico on “Britain’s North Sea decision: Waning leadership at home and abroad”.

Partners of the initiative include: