Sanctions against Russian fossil fuels have forced Russian coal producers to seek alternative markets. This research programme aims to provide an overview of the changing energy policy landscape in Russia due to sanctions, as well as deepen research on resultant socio-economic impacts and provide policy recommendations. Lastly, this project continues our work on Russian coal transitions and launches new analysis on energy transitions in Russian oil and gas sectors.

The project will also pay particular attention to the social and cultural dynamics related to fossil fuel production. The geopolitical ‘reset’ resulting from Russian aggression in Ukraine has increased the importance and urgency of this work, as Russian policymakers must rapidly rethink fossil fuel based economy. These changes will have wide-reaching impacts on Russia’s coal-dependent regions and exports.

This programme has been updated since February 2022 and will seek to understand Russian energy transitions given new geopolitical circumstances. In its updated form, the project aims to:

• Examine the economic importance of coal exports and its prospects in the Kuzbass region and in Russia more broadly;
• Analyse how to soften the social costs of coal transitions in Russia and provide recommendations;
• Explore discourses on oil and gas transitions in Russia, including prospects for oil and gas exports under the current geopolitical circumstances;
• Review the status of climate policy in Russia.

The project aims to provide analysis that supports socioeconomic transitions in coal-dependent regions and explore transition pathways for oil and gas.

The objectives are:

1. Regional coal analysis: Kuzbass in-depth case study to provide an overview of the importance of coal in Kuzbass and Russia more broadly
2. Study on prospects for oil and gas transitions in Russia with a particular focus on production changes due to sanctions, and prospects for the sector
3. Analysis on how to soften the social cost of coal transitions in Russia to propose what strategic social interventions are most suited for a coal transition in Russia.
4. Review of Russian climate policy changes under new geopolitical realities

These are publications from the previous project phase. We will update this page as new research becomes available in 2022.

Reports and Policy Briefs

• Final report: The Russian coal sector in a low-carbon world: Prospects for a Coal Transition?
• Policy Brief: Green development of Russian coal-intensive regions: opportunities and innovations
• Policy Brief: Economic diversification in Russia’s Kuzbass coal region
• Policy Brief: Visions for the future of the Russian coal industry in light of the global decarbonisation trend

Media and Publications

• BBC Future: Will Russia ever leave fossil fuels behind?
• Own coal goal: phasing out the fossil fuel in Russia. An interview with Anna Korppoo 
• Blog post: The days of coal are numbered. It’s time for Russia to get ready for the energy transition

Events

• Watch a recording of our webinar on advancing the coal transition in Russia

The research lead is Anna Korppoo, Research Professor at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Oslo.

Research partners include:

• Anton Orlov, CICERO, Center for International Climate Research
• Arild Moe, Fridtjof Nansen Institute
• George Safonov, European Forest Institute, Finland
• Maxim Titov and Nikita Lomagin
• Olga Gassan-zade
• Tatiana Lanshina, Agora Energiewende