Background

Analytic Support to Target Based Negotiations

This research study assisted the UNFCCC negotiations in 2010 by offering clarification and insights on a range of quantitative and qualitative levels into pledges made by countries for 2020.

Year: 2010 Past Project

  • Overview

    The international community must achieve its climate targets. Nationally Determined Contributions are a crucial tool in tracking global progress to limit warming.

    This research study assisted the UNFCCC negotiations in 2010 by offering clarification and insights on a range of quantitative and qualitative levels into pledges made by countries for 2020. 

    • Currently, it is not possible to fully understand countries’ pledges (so negotiate targets) on a common basis.
    • The global recession has reduced the likely emissions in 2020 and weakened the effort required to meet the proposed targets.
    • Collectively, the pledges are insufficient to drive the robust price in the carbon market needed for a peak in emissions by 2020.
    • The responsibility to reduce emissions will be much greater in the post 2020 period. Future generations will need to take deep year-by-year reductions in emissions in the years 2020-2050 if stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations is to be achieved and global warming is to be limited to a 2°C increase

  • Objectives

    This project aimed to understand what the combination of (1) countries’ pledged targets in 2020, (2) their likely ‘emissions anyway’ in 2020 and (3) the foreseeable CER supply up to 2020, can tell us about demand and supply in the international compliance carbon market(s) in 2020.

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