COP30 left people feeling conflicted. Many are disappointed by the failure to secure clear language around fossil fuel phase-out, establish a tangible plan to protect biodiversity, and deliver commitments for adaptation funding. The pace of progress also remains too slow for communities already experiencing severe climate impacts, a reality brought into sharp focus by the voices of Indigenous leaders attending this conference in the heart of the Amazon. These concerns are valid, and they were widely felt throughout the conference. 

Despite these challenges and the frustrations voiced throughout the negotiations, there were several developments that point to deeper shifts in global climate policy. They also touch on areas that Climate Strategies has been pursuing over the last twenty years: advancing climate and trade integration, supporting fossil fuel transitions, and embedding justice and equity at the centre of climate action. 

1. The Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT) 

The global trade system is a powerful tool for tackling the climate crisis. In recent years, we have seen a proliferation of Trade-Related Climate Measures (TrCMs)—such as the EU CBAM. These policies signal the climate ambition of many nations, but they have far-reaching consequences, particularly for developing countries.  

By centring cooperation, countries could create mutually beneficial and justice-centered TrCMs— bolstering joint climate action and delivering sustainable development.  

At COP30, the UNFCCC created the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFFCT). The IFCCT will provide a platform for governments, experts, and industry representatives to discuss how climate goals interact with trade systems. These dialogues could help countries collectively explore low-carbon trade cooperation and ensure Global South priorities are fairly represented in these measures, while delivering ambitious climate action. 

Climate Strategies has a history of working on TrCMs in partnership with our research members. In recent years, expert and policy exchanges—in our South-to-South Just Transitions and our Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels projects—have highlighted the critical importance of developing TrCMs that are both ambitious and equitable. Building on this work, we plan to work with colleagues around the world to deliver evidence-based recommendations for inclusive TrCMs that deliver climate and development benefits for everyone.   

2. Setting the stage for a global conversation on fossil fuel transitions 

The transition away from fossil fuels was at the forefront of many discussions during the conference but did not appear in the final text. Close to ninety countries expressed public support for a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, a level of alignment that would have been difficult to imagine only a few years ago. 

In response to this momentum, Colombia announced that, with support from the Dutch government, it will host a high-level, global diplomatic conference in April 2026 dedicated to creating a pathway for fossil fuel transitions. This conference is an opportunity for countries to engage directly with the realities and challenges of moving beyond fossil fuels. 

A dedicated forum will build shared understanding, inform new alliances, and support countries exploring economic diversification and managed transitions—helping us shift from focusing on environmental impact to exploring economic potential. 

Climate Strategies has been supporting efforts to create feasible pathways to a prosperous, post-fossil-fuel future for several years. Our Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels programme was created to respond directly to the need for a research-informed, cross-national dialogue to align expectations and priorities among fossil fuel-dependent economies as they transition towards low-emission economies. Going forward, we are collaborating with global experts and policymakers to provide evidence-based recommendations on how win-win international partnerships and arrangements between fossil fuel producers and consumers could support diversification away from fossil fuels.  

3. The Just Transition Mechanism 

In one of the biggest wins for COP30, the latest text for the Just Transition Work Programme proposed the development of a mechanism. The Just Transition Mechanism aims to enhance international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building and knowledge sharing, and enable equitable, inclusive transitions.  

Climate Strategies played an important role in securing this agreement. Since 2023, we have provided evidence-based inputs to the UNFCCC highlighting the need for such an outcome. We have worked with research colleagues to clearly articulate how international collaboration could support on-the-ground Just Transition implementation—particularly through our Just Transition Compass. We’ve delivered ground-breaking work that articulates what activities a Just Transition Mechanism needs to undertake to address gaps in the UNFCCC’s existing work on Just Transitions and deliver truly transformative justice. Next year, we are continuing to explore how international actors can provide tangible and tailored support to help practitioners overcome barriers to Just Transition implementation. 

Where do we go from here? 

There is still a long way to go, but what we saw in Brazil creates opportunities for constructive conversations at COP31 in Türkiye and COP32 in Addis Ababa. COP31 will be an important moment to take stock of the progress, advance discussions on fossil fuel transitions, climate-aligned trade, and Just Transition frameworks, and strengthen the momentum needed on the global stage.  

Like many others, we have questions around the practicalities of how COP31 will be managed, between Türkiye hosting and Australia presiding. However, we are pleased that, although complex, the Pacific Islands are taking centre-stage for the pre-COP31 discussion, highlighting the stark climate challenges humanity is already facing. 

Our experience at UN Climate Week in Addis Ababa this past autumn highlighted why Ethiopia will be a meaningful place for such conversations in 2027. The country is one of Africa’s fastest-moving nations when it comes to climate ambition and delivery. During the Climate Week in September 2025, policymakers, community leaders, innovators, and youth from across the continent were shaping discussions and showcasing solutions that respond to local realities, from access to ancestral land and critical mineral trade to nature-based solutions.  

With more diverse voices being heard during multinational negotiations and a clear agreement on the necessity to take ambitious actions to combat the climate crisis, we are still falling behind on unanimous decisions. This, however, cannot stop us from acting on a local level and collaborating internationally at all available forums to ensure coordinated and contextual climate action.  

Nicole is a Development and Programme Manager at Climate Strategies. Prior to working at Climate Strategies, she worked in sustainable agriculture in Rwanda. Nicole has an MSc in Sustainable Development from the University of St Andrews, with a focus on reconciling tensions between social and ecological justice in transfrontier conservation projects in Southern Africa.

Brynn is the Project Communications and Impact Lead at Climate Strategies. She holds a BA in Political Science from Columbia University and an MA in Environmental Policy from Sciences Po, Paris. Before starting at Climate Strategies, Brynn worked in the Communications and Digital Office of the International Energy Agency.